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Analysis: Romania’s foreign challenges in 2014

In a year dominated by European and presidential elections, Romania will have a challenging agenda abroad, dominated at European level by the double monitoring for corruption and the never ending Schengen target and in the East by relations with Moldova and the more complicated ones with Russia.

 

The year 2014 begins in force for Romania with the publication of the report on the Mechanism of Cooperation and Verification by the European Commission, following the amendments to the Penal Code, already criticized by several diplomats accredited to Bucharest and by the US ambassador to OSCE.

 

Moreover, besides MCV Romania will be subject to a report made on all EU member states. In April, the European Commission will release the first anti-corruption report on all member states. Romania and Bulgaria tried to avoid their inclusion in the report because they are already monitored by the MCV report but failed. So Romania may be criticized again as the report as the report pays special importance to public purchases, a field in which Bucharest has had problems which attracted suspensions of programs and financial corrections.

 

Following the joint statement made by Romania and Bulgaria in December 2013, in which they declared they had fulfilled technical criteria for Schengen accession and would request another consideration of the matter when unanimity was reached, 2014 will clarify whether the two countries have given up the target.

 

Political sources explained that the JAI Council of March 2014 presents minimal chances for a positive decision, as the meeting will be held at the beginning of the month before municipal elections in France. French politicians have already made statements according to which Romania is not ready to join Schengen. The JAI Council of October 2014 might be favorable for both Romania and Bulgaria as there are no important elections within EU at that time.

 

European elections of 22-24 May are important for Bucharest authorities, which hope for results allowing the take-over of EC leadership by socialist Martin Schulz. On November 8, premier Victor Ponta said that in case Schulz took over the EC presidency, Romania “will have a member of our political family and a person who knows us very well.”

 

Premier Victor Ponta’s 2013 visit in Germany and the social-democrats’ participation in governing may be premises for a re-launch of relations with Germany which has stagnated in the last years.

Relations with France are under the question mark in the context of municipal elections to be held there in March 2014.

 

In the fall, on the background of Schengen debates, the gypsy question appeared again on the French political stage. The Foreign Ministry blamed the harsh declarations made by French politicians against Romania on the future elections. So there could be new exchanges of statements between Paris and Bucharest in the first part of the year.

 

The anti-missile defense is on the agenda of the NATO 2014 summit in London, where Romania hopes to hear a reconfirmation of the US firm engagement on the implementation of the shield at Deveselu base, whose works started in October 2013.Romanians expect new progress from Washington about the lifting of visas. A new American ambassador is expected in Bucharest after Mark Gitenstein’s departure.

 

As we celebrate 10 years since Romania’s accession to NATO, the authorities are preparing important festivities to be attended, according to defense minister Mircea Dusa- by all NATO defense ministers.

In the Eastern area Romania will continue to back Moldova and will plead for the lifting of visas for Moldova’s citizens and for the signing of the Association Accord with EU so that pro-European groups from Chisinau could present an important aspect in the November elections.The works on Iasi-Ungheni gas pipe should be over in 2014. The initial deadline was established in December 2013.

 

As for relations with Russia, it is hard to anticipate the steps to be made in 2014. ICR might open a branch in Moscow, following the government decision published on November 5, which foresees the approval of an accord between the Government of Romania and the Government of the Russian Federation on the opening and functioning of ICR Moscow.

 

As the foreign minister Titus Corlatean said in November, the Foreign Ministry is expecting an answer from Moscow about resuming the activity of the bilateral Commission on Romania’s treasury. A top level visit at president or premier level in Moscow or Bucharest is not likely to happen.

 

On the other hand, 2014 may bring a boost of relations with China, following the China-Central and Eastern Europe Forum hosted by Romania, when several collaboration accords were signed.

 

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