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Analysis: The most affected by inflation effects are part of 1.43 million Romanians with bank credits
The significant price increase places high pressure on the Romanians' money and the most affected by inflation effects are mostly part of the 1.43 million Romanians with bank credits, according to an analysis made by the consulting company Frames and Lawyer firm Cuculis & Associates which say the rate of nonperforming credits could exceed 10% in the conditions of the financial tsunami that follows.
Stress tests made by the National Bank at the end of 2020 indicated that the rate of nonperforming credits could reach 9.2% in December 2021 and 9.9% in 2022. In April, the NPL rate was 3.94% over the final level of 2020 of 3.83%.
Since the, the economic situation has changed substantially. Chain price increases made financial pressure on the 1.43 million Romanians with credits grow significantly, so the BNR scenario seems to be overrated.
“Major price rises for gas, energy and fuel represent, unfortunately, only the tip of the iceberg of high prices which we will experience since November. Since the Romanians' salaries remained the same, financial pressure has become worse,” Frames analysis shows.
In conditions in which the Romanians' financial power has strongly eroded, many people with credits for homes, cars, consumption, will be in a risk zone, so that rescheduling loans and their refinancing become necessary.
According to BNR data, there are now 158,901 people with delayed credits. Their share is 2.55% and the value of delayed credits is 3.9 billion lei.
According to National Bank – Bank Risk Central data, mortgages which exceeded 70.9 billion lei in August come first, and together with other credits for real estate investments (46.1 billion lei) represented the highest share in the people's loans. Consumer credits were 64.8 billion lei.
“The value of mortgages went up by 8.7 billion lei compared to the same period of 2020. For the Romanians, owning a house, even on credit, means safety and prospects. Our estimates show that, even in the worst scenario – with bankruptcies, firing staff, the payment of the credit rate will be in the people's attention, beyond the other everyday life costs,” says Adrian Negrescu, Frames manager.
In case many Romanians do not have enough money for decent living, the renegotiation of bank contracts, of leasing and the other loan categories, becomes the best solution in the present economic context.
Besides those who will want to renegotiate credits, there will be many clients incapable of making payments. In these cases too, juridical assistance is essential.
According to BNR data, consulted by Frames, the biggest delays are over 5 years (1.9 billion lei), followed by those between 1 and 5 years (1.3 billion lei), 181 days – 1 year (295 million lei).
Unpaid credits with delays of maximum 15 days represent 113 million lei, on the rise by 10 million lei against last year.
According to Frames estimates, the most vulnerable in point of risk for not paying are families with children, retired people and single persons paid with the lowest salaries.
Pensioners are also in the most vulnerable area, since their incomes cannot cover prices increases.
According to Frames analysis, the biggest bank exposure is for long term credits of over 5 years (117.9 billion lei), followed by average term credits (1-5 years) – 34.4 billion lei and short term loans (up to 12 months) – 1.4 billion lei.
As for the type of credits in lei, in August, consumer credits represented 51.9 billion lei, those for houses 76.8 billion lei and those for other purposes 245 million lei.