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Association of Financial Banking Analysts in Romania estimate inflation to exceed 8% in 2022
Over 85% of members of the Financial Banking Analysts in Romania (AAFBR) estimate inflation will exceed 8% in 2022, but there is also a moderate to high risk to enter stagflation.
AAFBR released a new opinion poll with the specialists' opinion about the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on Romania's economy.
55 AAFBR members answered the questionnaire over March 22- April 8, 2022.
“The visibility on economic prospects is lower in the context of the war in Ukraine. However, it is important to watch economic tendencies closely and do this estimating exercise on key macroeconomic aspects, at least on a short term. Therefore, over 85% of AAFBR members consider that inflation will exceed 8% in 2022 and there is a moderate to high risk of going into stagflation.
The monetary policy rate is anticipated to grow towards 4% by half of participants in the survey and even towards 5% by a third of participants, considering the need of counteracting high inflation,” says Daniela Ropota, AAFBR president.
Inflation reached 10.2% in March 2022, compared to March 2021, this being the highest level since 2004 to the present. The tendency of the EUR/RON exchange rate is rising to an estimated 5 lei for 1 euro in 2022.
“In these conditions, economic growth is estimated to slow down significantly this year, reaching 0-2% according to 38% of respondents or even recession in the view of 7%of respondents,” she added.
When the survey was made, over 90% of respondents expected a stable or growing tendency of economic sanctions on Russia and there were divided opinions about the process of accelerating obtaining energy from renewable sources in Romania, a more stable tendency on a short term.