Draft budget for next year is built on economic growth of 2.8%

The draft budget for next year is configured on an economic growth of 2.8%, in the context in which the economic shock caused by the pandemic is one of the most significant in recent history, shows the draft state budget law for 2023 published on Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance.

The gross domestic product in current prices is estimated to increase to 1,552 billion RON, from 1,396 billion RON this year.

The ESA budget deficit in 2023 is calculated at 4.4% of GDP, and it will reach 2.9% of GDP in 2026, falling within the provisions of European regulations at the end of the forecast horizon (year 2024), respectively 2.95% of GDP. In 2024, the cash budget deficit reaches the value of 2.95% of GDP, with which it falls within the European regulations, reads the cited document.

On the general consolidated budget, total expenses are expected to be 607.924 billion RON in 2023. Budget expenses next year will represent 39.17% of GDP, with a downward trend in 2026. Investment expenses amount to approximately 112.1 billion RON, representing approximately 7.22% in GDP, and in 2026 they will reach approximately 154.2 billion RON.

Budget revenues in nominal terms are estimated at 539.6 billion RON (34.77% of GDP), increasing in nominal value over the reference horizon, reaching 655.1 billion RON in 2026 (32.78% of GDP). Social insurance contributions (30.1% of total revenues) account for the largest share of budget revenues in 2023, followed by VAT (21.1%), amounts received from the EU (13.2% of total revenues), and excise duties (7.1%).

According to the draft budget, inflation at the end of the year would slow down to 8% in 2023, compared to 15.2% in 2022, while the current account deficit will decrease to 8.5% of GDP, from 8.8 % this year.

Salaries are expected to rise 1.7% next year, after a 2% decline this year.

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