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BCR: Our expectations for economic growth of this year are 3.5%
The Romanian economy could grow this year by 3.5% and 2% next year, stated Ciprian Dascalu, head economist with the Banca Comerciala Romana at the event ‘ Meeting with the Economic Press’ organized by the Financial Market in Predeal.
‘We expect economic growth of 3.5%. Next year we will see a slowing down which is given mainly by our expectations for reduction of the budgetary deficit towards 3% of GDP. Practically, from here, from the public demand we have the slowing down in 2021. This is our scenario. Inflation will stay within the target interval for most of the period, but somewhere towards the superior limit of the target interval of the Central Bank’ said Ciprian Dascalu.
The BCR prognosis indicated for this year a budgetary deficit of 3.8% and for 2021 one of 3%. The average exchange rate estimated by the bank for this year is 4.87 lei for euro, and in 2021 – 4.97 lei for one euro.
Similarly, the prognosis indicated a reduction of the interest of monetary policy towards the end of 2021 at 2%.
Ciprian Dascalu mentioned that the financial markets expected early elections for this year, and if they take place, a less ample drop of the yields at state bonds will happen. Contrary, if early elections do not take place, a more ample growth of the yields will take place.
The budget draft for 2020 is built on an economic growth of 4.1% a budgetary deficit of 3.59% and an average rate of inflation of 3.1%.