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BCR: there were signs that Romania’s economy can grow in a slower way than announced this year
The BCR economists keep their estimate that the GDP of Romania will grow this year with 4.1% against the previous year,but they also say that the new official data show more risk that the advance may be under this level
‘For the moment, we keep our estimate for the whole year 2018 at 4.1% but we admit that there are chances that we have a slower growth of economy. We need an economic advance stronger in Q3 2018 agaisnt the latest in order to keep the estimate for the whole year 2018’ the BCR analysis entitled ‘ Acceleration of economic growth in Q2 2018 – shall we open our champagne bottle or should we expect the worst?’ signed by Dorina Ilasco, economic analyst in the bank.
The BCR estimate takes into consideration the fact that in Q2 this year economic growth of Romania accelerated at 1.4% against the previous quarter after Q1 had a modest economic advance of only 0.1% as the INS data say.
Private consumption will be,most probably the main factor to determine the growth of our economy in the second half of this year, according to the BCR analysis being supported ‘both by a solid growth of net salary and the dropping inflation, which , in the end, would increase the appetite for expenditure of the Romanians’.
At the same time, the BCR analysis does not exclude as a total the possibility that agriculture supply good results this season, but the bank economists admit that it will be hard to repeat ‘ the remarkable performance of last year taking into consideration the extremely high dependence of the sector on the weather’.
In exchange, the economic advance of Q2 of this year was supported by industry, retail and services,the BCR analysis says on the basis of public data.
The data regarding the non-residential sector of the construction market were disappointing while the works in infrastructure grew modestly.
‘The available data suggest that foreign demand would have contributed to a slowing down of the economic advance. The economy of the euro zone, our main commercial partner grew again with only 0.4% in Q2 2018 against Q1 2018 this being the weakest quarterly evolution since Q4 2016 up to the present’ the BCR analyst says.