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BNR revises downwards, to 3.5 per cent, inflation forecast for end-2018


The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised downwards, to 3.5 per cent, its inflation forecast for the end of this year, BNR governor Mugur Isarescu stated on Wednesday.

The previous estimate indicated an inflation of 3.6 per cent in 2018.

For the end of the year, the central bank estimates an inflation of 2.7 per cent, down by 0.3 percentage points.

BNR anticipates a moderation, due to the significant reduction of the exogenous components' inflationary contribution, while pressures are expected to accumulate at the core inflation level, especially in 2019. The IPC annual inflation rate is expected to stay within the target established for early 2019 and until the forecast horizon.

According to the data published by the National Institute of Statistics on July 11, consumer prices in May increased by 0.02pct, as prices for foods declined 0.24pct, prices for non-foods increased by 0.14pct and service prices increased by 0.20pct. The annual inflation rate stood at 5.4pct in June 2018, down slightly by 0.01 percentage points from the previous month (5.41pct), amid a 3.86pct-rise in prices for foods, a 7.82pct-rise in prices for non-foods and by and a 2.58pct-rise in service prices.

In early May, BNR upwardly adjusted to 3.6pct its inflation forecast for the end of 2018, against a previous forecast of 3.5pct y-o-y inflation rate in 2018.