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BNR: The annual inflation rate will get to the level of one figure in Q3 of the present year
The annual inflation rate will drop, probably, in Q3 2023, in line with the most recent prognosis on medium term, but it will drop significantly in a more alert way later on, getting to the level of one figure in Q3 of the current year, according to the Minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) of 10th January 2023.
‘As regards the future evolutions, the members of the Board showed that, according to the new evaluations, the annual rate of inflation will drop probably in Q1 2023 in line with the most recent prognosis on medium term, but it will drop significantly later on, getting to a level of one figure in Q3 of the same year – in advance by almost three quarters against the previous estimates – as an effect of the extension of the capping and clearing schemes for energy prices until 31st March 2025, together with the amendment of their characteristics starting with 1st January 2023.It was reminded that the estimate published in the Report on inflation of November 2022, having as possibility the ceasing of the capping schemes in September 2023, anticipated a gradual drop of the annual rate of inflation until Q1 2024, but more accentuated later, meaning a level of 11.2% in December 2023, but 4.2 % at the end of the horizon of the estimate – situated slightly over the target interval’ the document says.
According to the quoted source, starting with Q1 of this year, small disinflationary effects will probably manifest on the sector of processed foods, with impact on the dynamics of the future inflation.
At the same time, it was agreed that the balance of risks induced by the shocks on the part of the offer at the address of new perspectives of inflation is relatively balanced in the present context, given the recent evolution of the quotations of the main energy products and food goods, as well as those of the major determinants.