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BRD estimates that the Romanian economy will grow by 4.1% in 2017


The BRD-Groupe Societe Generale analysts estimate that the Romanian economy will slow down this year and will record an advance of 4.1%while the budgetary deficit will be over the threshold imposed by the European treaties and will reach 3.4% of the GDP after the European standard |ESA 2010, shows a research report sent on Wednesday by News.ro.

The BRD estimate is close to that of the IMF which revised upwards on Tuesday the estimate for the economic growth of Romania in 2017 from 3.9% to 4.2%.

For the years to come, the BRD analysts estimate the economic growth rate of 3.8% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019.

‘The private consumption seems to be the basis for economic growth stimulated by a new round of fiscal stimuli and growth of salaries. However, it is unlikely that the solid performance of 2016 be repeated, taking into consideration that the growth rhythm which is slower of sales in retail, of more reduced dimensions of the package of fiscal stimuli implemented this year as compared to 2016, by the estimated acceleration of inflation and modest growth of the work places’ the report shows, signed by the BRD research team led by the head economist Florin Libocor.

For the budgetary deficit, BRD estimates an advance to 3.4% of GDP in 2017, but a later reduction at 2.9%of GDP in 2018 and 2.4% of GDP in 2019.

The euro/euro exchange rate would be kept stable between 2017 – 2019,the annual average levels being estimated by the BRD analysts at 4.50 – 4.52 lei/euro.

The government estimates a rate of economic growth of 5.2% this year and 5.5% for next year.