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CFA Romania: Average rate of ROBOR for three months of 3.13% and an average exchange rate of 4.7651 lei/euro, in the next 12 months


The CFA Romania analysts  estimate, for the next 12 months, an average rate of ROBOR with maturity at three months of 3.13%, an exchange rate of 4.7651 lei for one euro and a rate of inflation going up, shows the Indicator of Macroeconomic Trust for February 2018, published on Monday night.

According to the document, at the level of February,  the CFA Romania indicator of macroeconomic trust increased with 0.7 points,up to the value of 46.7 points,while the indicator of present conditions increased with 9.9 points up to 67.1 points. Similarly, the indicator of anticipations dropped with 3.8 points, at 36.6 points.

As regards the exchange euro/leu, over 81% of the CFA Romania analysts estimate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months, as compared to the present value. Thus, the average value of anticipation for the horizon of six months is 4,7021 lei/euro, and for the horizon of 12 months the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 4.7651lei.

Over 84% of the participants to the CFA Romania research consider that the rate of inflation will increase in the next 12 months. At the moment  of the survey, the rate of inflation had a value of 4.32%.
At the same time, 96% of the analysts consider that the rates of interest for the leu - maturity at three months will grow.

The average rate of ROBOR with maturity – three months over 12 months is 3.13% and the yield of the sovereign bids in lei with maturity 5 years is 4.60%. In this context, for the maturity at short term, CFA Romania anticipates negative interest.

According to the published data on Monday by the National Bank of Romania ROBOR for three months was 2.03%.
CFA Romania mentions that, starting with February this year, there were added two questions in the survey, which refer to the way the price of shares listed on BVB is considered,how the price of real estate  assets for the cities of Romania is considered, respectively. As regards the first question, according to the answers, there is no clear opinion, while for the second question approximately 55% of the participants consider that the real estate assets are over-evaluated.

The CFA  Romania indicator for macroeconomic trust was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011, representing an indicator through which they want to quantify the anticipations of the financial analysts with regard to the economic activity in Romania  for a time horizon of one year.

The survey is made in the last week of each month, and the participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exams.

CFA Romania is the association of professionals in investments of Romania. The title of CFA is one of most prestigious in the world among professionals in the financial domain.