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CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence index slightly rises in Nov 2017


CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said that the state of the country's economy is expected to marginally improve in the next 12 months, seenews.com informs.

CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator rose by 0.7 points month-on-month to 44.1 points in November following five consecutive months of decline, CFA said in a monthly survey on Tuesday.

The low score is mainly the result of a slight improvement in perception of the current economic situation, an indicator which rose by 0.6 points to 59.7 points in November.

The analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months improved by 0.8 points to 36.3 points in November.

CFA analysts said they are expecting, on average, inflation of 3.38% in the period December 2017- December 2018, up 0.62 percentage points compared to their expectations in the previous month.

Romania's annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.2% in November, from 2.6% in October, according to data from the national statistical board, INS. In its latest inflation report issued in November, Romania's central bank lifted its end-2017 inflation forecast to 2.7% and kept the 2018 inflation forecast unchanged at 3.2%.

The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.6891 lei ($1.2/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months, up by 470 pips compared to the previous survey, and 4.7329 lei per euro in 2018, up by 512 pips compared to the survey conducted in October.

Also, 58.5% of analysts said they expect global economic conditions to be normal, while 2.5% expect an unfavourable situation and 39% are optimistic.

The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, represents an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.