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CFA Romania: The indicator of macroeconomic trust increased marginally in March

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The indicator of macroeconomic trust of CFA Romania increased with 0.9 points up to the value of 47.6 points,evolution due to the anticipations of the indicator,according to a press release of CFA Romania.

‘Thus, the indicator of current conditions dropped with 2.9 points,down to the value of 64.2 points, while the indicator of anticipations dropped with  2.8 points down to the value of 39.4 points. As regards the exchange rate euro/leu, over 83% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months ( as compared to the present value).Thus the average value of anticipations for the horizon of 6 months is 4.700 while for the horizon of 12 months the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 4.7369’ says the  press release.

The anticipated rate of inflation for the horizon of 12 months ( March 2019/March 2018) registered an average value of 4.17% ( the average value registered is 4%).

‘What is to notice is the anticipations for increase of the interest rates (against the present values) to the leu both for  short-term maturity (3 months) and for the medium-term maturity (5 months), 98% and 90% respectively of the participants in the survey anticipating this evolution. Thus, the average rate of ROBOR with maturity of 3 months anticipated over 12 months is3.02% and the yield of the sovereign bonds denominated in lei with maturity of 5 years is 4.51%.As a result, for the short –term maturity there are anticipations of negative real interests’ the press release says.

The CFA Romania indicator of macroeconomic trust was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011 and represents an indicator through which the association wants to quantify the anticipations of the financial analysts with regards to the economic activity in Romania for a horizon of one year. Similarly,the survey for which the indicator is calculated includes questions referring to the evaluation of the current  macroeconomic conditions.

Through the method of achievement,this survey covers both specific elements for a trust indicator which shows the perception of the group of analysts members of CFA Romania regarding the evolution of the financial markets, of the business environment, of the yields and risks,as well as of the fundamental indicator of prognosis regarding the evolution of the exchange rate, of the rates of interest and inflation. The survey is made over the last week of each month and the participants are members of CFA Romania and the candidates for the levels II and III of the CFA exam.



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