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CNSP: Romania could register economic growth of 4.1-4.1% in 2021


Romania could register economic growth of 4.1-4.2% in 2021 and relaunching could happen sometime in March or Q2, stated on Wednesday Valentin Ionescu, manager with the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP)

‘The Prognosis commission at the beginning of November made a projection on the main macroeconomic indicators and they will be adjusted because there are doubts about them now towards the end of the year and as a result of foreign influence and here Germany made us think a little. Namely,we projected a GDP  for next year of 4.5 which surely is optimistic and we thought it is optimistic. I won’t deny it. It is optimistic. And my opinion is that it  could get to 4.% We are discussing about growth of the real GDP, not of the nominal terms GDP. In nominal terms surely you can get to what it is now estimated – 8%, but the deflator seems a bit high, 4%. So, next year we get  growth of 4.1 – 4.2%. It is possible. But what does it mean? This means that probably the relaunch is going to happen somewhere in March or Q2. Namely in the first two months, the economy will not start. It will not take off with full steam, as abroad, where we have foreign demand and which influences the industrial production, things start later,especially in Germany, which is the engine of the European economy’ Valentin Ionescup said in a video-conference.

He mentioned that next year the contribution of the industry in the GDP growth will be smaller, not as much as projected.

‘We estimated at somewhere 1.2. We assumed that it could not be like this. And it is possible not to get to 1.2 and anyway there  will be a positive value’ stated Valentin Ionescu.

The CNSP manager said that as regards the industry, what ‘ is worrying’ is the fact that some sectors are going downwards, namely they register a drop which is close to a business cycle.

‘And here I am referring to light industry which covers textiles, pret-a-porter, leather goods, and footwear. The Romanian light industry has been in decline for the last six years. This is something to worry about’ added Valentin Ionescu in the video-conference ZF BRD Sud-Est Buget 2021 – ‘ How do we prepare the future: How do we solve the business equation of the year to come?’