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EC Maintains Romania's 2019 GDP Growth Projection at 3.8%

The European Commission has maintained its 3.8% economic growth projection for Romania in 2019 in its winter economic forecast released Thursday, unchanged from its fall forecast.

It also maintained its 3.6% economic growth projection for Romania in 2020.

The commission updated its GDP growth estimate for 2018 to 4% in the winter forecast from 3.6% predicted in the autumn forecast. “Real GDP growth eased from 7% in 2017 to 4.3% annualized in the first three quarters of 2018. For the year as a whole it is estimated at 4%,” the EC noted.

The EC sees inflation at 3.3% in 2019 from its previous forecast of 3.5%. Romania's inflation in 2020 is seen at 3.1% from a previous forecast of 3.3%.

The evolution of investment in 2019 will largely depend on the impact of policies introduced in December 2018 concerning the banking, energy and telecommunications sectors. Besides a potential negative impact on credit, the impact of the government’s emergency ordinance in December could have a much broader effect. For example, significantly increased unpredictability of the business environment in Romania may have a negative knock-on effect on investment decisions, the Commission noted.