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EIU estimates an economic growth of 2.5% for Romania in 2013 and an annual average of 4% between 2014 - 2017


The Romanian economy will record in 2013 a growth of 2.5% which reflects the persistent recession in the euro zone, to have the growth rhythm accelerated during the period of 2014 – 2017 at an average annual rate of 4%, the report on September of the Economist Intelligence Unit. The prognosis for September of the EIU is slightly growing by comparison to the report published in July, which mentioned economic growth of 2.4% for 2013 and an annual average rate of under 4% between 2014 – 2017.

Romania avoided entering the recession in 2012, by having a growth of GDP of 0.7% and the economic recovery would be consolidated moderately in 2013. After euro zone gets out of recession in 2014, the growth rhythm will acceleate gradually at an annual rate of 4% between 2014 ^- 2017, as the GDP is supported by exports and the growth of the domestic demand, the report mentions.

However, according to the report, the Romanian government will have difficulty in reducing the budgetary deficit to the target of 2.1% of GDP in 2013 if they do not go to unpopular cuts in public expenditure and do not restructure the state companies, despite the growth perspective for 2013.

The macroeconomic programme of the government for the period of 2013 – 2016 involves a continuation of the fiscal consolidation and reforms meant to improve the budget payment, the management of the public funds and the absorption of European funds. The reforms in state companies, as well as the health system and education will have political opposition and social opposition, the report shows.

The Romanian government intends to get private management, foreign capital and technology for the modernisation of the utilities, especially in the domain of energy and transports. However, EIU estimates that progress as regards the structural reforms will be gradual and due to delay, as the opposition of the trade unions.