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European Commission significantly increases to 7.4pct outlook for Romanian economy in 2021

The improving health situation and ensuing continued easing of virus containment measures are putting the EU economies back in motion. The near-term outlook for the European economy looks brighter than expected in spring.


The contraction of GDP in the first quarter of the year turned out to be marginal, and milder than suggested by Eurostat’s Preliminary Flash Estimate, which was incorporated into the Spring Forecast. Falling numbers of new infections and hospitalisations, thanks to an effective containment strategy and progress in vaccination, have led EU Member States to reopen their economies, to the benefit of service sector businesses, in particular.


Upbeat survey results among consumers and businesses, as well as data tracking mobility, suggest that a rebound in consumption is already underway and set to strengthen in the coming months. There is also evidence of a beginning revival in tourism activity, which should also benefit from the new EU Digital COVID Certificate. Together, these factors are expected to outweigh the temporary production input shortages and rising costs hitting parts of the manufacturing sector.


Romania's economy is expected to grow by 7.4pct in 2021 and by 4.9pct in 2022, compared to the 5.1pct growth estimated earlier in May for this year and 4.9 for next year, according to the interim summer 2021 interim economic forecast published by the European Commission (EC) on Wednesday.

In the European Union, the economy is expected to mark a 4.8 increase in 2021 and an increase of 4.5 in 2022.

Inflation will reach 3.2pct in 2021 and 2.9 in 2022, in Romania, according to the EC forecast, after May estimates pointed to a 2.9pct level this year and a 2.7pct level next year.

In the European Union, the inflation rate is estimated to reach 2.2pct in 2021 and 1.6pct in 2022. 


(Details on : https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/forecasts/2021/summer/ecfin_forecast_summer_2021_ro_en.pdf)