Loading page...

Romanian Business News - ACTMedia :: Services|About us|Contact|RSS RSS

Subscribe|Login

Fitch 's special report on euro adoption in non-euro CEE countries: the main beneficiaries will be Croatia and Bulgaria, followed by Romania and Hungary

In case the states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) who are not yet members of the euro zone will access the euro, the main beneficiaries will be Croatia (rating BB with negative perspective) and Bulgaria (rating BBB minus with stable perspective) while Romania (rating BBB minus with stable perspective) and Hungary (rating BB plus with positive perspective) are in an intermediary situation and the Czech Republic (rating A plus with stable perspective) and Poland (rating A minus with stable perspective) will benefit the least, shows in an analysis the financial evaluation agency Fitch Ratings.

However, accession to the euro zone is in a faraway perspective as it has disappeared from the political agendas of the six states from CEE, says Fitch.

The effects of euro accession on the ratings of these states differ from neuter to positive, while the ratings for the debts in foreign currency will be probably revised upwards, with a level or,in exceptional cases with two levels, the agency says.

Romania and Hungary will lose the advantages of independent monetary policy in the case of accession to euro, warns Fitch. The reduced level of the governmental debt of Romania will allow the country to keep a certain flexibility, while the open economy of Hungary will benefit from the reduction of trading costs. ‘ The euro-isation’ ( the high level of loans in euro to the private and governmental sector) of the two countries is, similarly, more limited than in Bulgaria and Croatia, although in Hungary the level of the governmental debt in euro is high (23% of the GDP).Taking into consideration the high level of the foreign debt, the accession to euro will strengthen the foreign debt in Romania and Hungary, the agency considers.

On the basis of Fitch analysis, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania cover all criteria for convergence in ERM II (the mechanism of exchange rate) with the exception of participation.

The BNR governor Mugur Isarescu recently stated that Romania will be able to access the euro zone as soon as possible, on the condition it will be well prepared, reach a high level of convergence, which could continue after the accession to the euro zone.

According to him, for Romania, successful accession to the euro zone represents a complex process, which means the combination of nominal convergence with real convergence and the judicial one, in an effort of long duration, which could continue many years after the accession to the single currency. At the same time, this process has a cultural part, as the currency is part of the symbols of any nation, as well as a social dimension, including the balanced development of the regions in the country, the governor of BNR says.

More