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Infopolitic study: PSD and PNL close in score and territorial distribution

Social-democrats (PSD) and liberals (PNL) are very close as score and territorial distribution, which makes election competition in the Fall extremely balanced, according to an Infopolitic study, made after the official publication of results in June local elections.

“Although they have close scores, PSD continues to be better represented in the country, compared to PNL,” says an Infopolitic study made after the official publication of results of June local elections. “PSD and PNL are very close in score and territorial distribution - which makes the election fight in the fall extremely balanced. The distribution of power between PSD and PNL is much more balanced than at first sight” the authors of the study say.

They showed that, although there is a PSD domination in Moldova and Muntenia and one of PNL in Transylvania, they are not final. “Although they have close scores, PSD continues to be better represented in the country compared to PNL. PSD obtained over 50% in County Councils in 36% of localities, compared to 18% in localities won by PNL with over 50%. Moreover, PNL won under 10% in 11% of localities, compared to just 6% by PSD - which shows that PSD is weaker in fewer localities than PNL,” Infopolitic shows.

“An explanation for this difference comes from the fact that PSD takes advantage from the urban/rural cleavage, winning more communes, while towns are more balanced”, the study shows.

Infopolitic shows that besides the advantage for big parties, voting in a single round allows the Hungarian minority to have mayors in more localities outside the two traditional counties, “which indicates an important support for the Hungarian Democrat Union of Romania (UDMR)  and scenarios for a possible drop of this party under 5% at parliamentary elections seem unrealistic.”

As for the distribution of votes for the junior party ALDE (the Romanian Alliance of Liberals and Democrats), analysts say it offers the party a construction base for the Fall. In comparison, PMP (People's Movement Party) also has a starting base for autumn elections but it is significantly lower than estimated at first. The fact that ALDE is better represented in the country than PMP is shown by data, where it won more than PMP in the rural area.

Analysts also show that the map with vote differences between PSD and PNL indicates “the real areas of election competition” in the Fall. At the same time, the map of mayors in localities, where only small parties are included, shows that ALDE has an extensive spread in the country, PMP is restricted to older democrat-liberals (PDL ) lead by former president Traian Basescu places, and so is the National Union for Romania's Progress (UNPR) . The spreading of independents shows they are extended in Transylvania can indicate areas where alternate election offers could have resonance.

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