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ING: Exceptional economic growth of 5%, estimated by president Basescu is not impossible but hard to accept for the moment

The national currency had a slight appreciation. Transactions concluded at 4.4670 lei/euro following an appreciation of 4.48/euro. Considering this is the last working day for many important participants we do not expect important movements at current level and continue to prefer a slight appreciation tendency, an ING document sent on Thursday shows.


In another note, economists of the quoted bank write that Romania’s president declared he expected a 5% economic growth for 2014, a big difference from the average prognosis of 2.6% made by analysts and even against our relatively optimistic prognosis of 2.9% to which we associated a positive surprise risk.


However, such an exceptional growth is not impossible (with an average quarterly rate of 1% after being 1.2% last year) but hard to accept for the moment. Supposing that Romania will register that spectacular annual advance, we will need a powerful increase in the first quarter. That makes May 15, when GDP data for quarter 1, 2014, a special day for participants in the leu markets, shows the ING note.