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The CFA analysts estimate that euro will surpass 4.8 lei in the next 12 months

The macroeconomic trust indicator of CFA Romania calculated on the basis of the estimates of the members of the organization dropped in July, against the previous month, and the analysts estimate that the euro will surpass 4.83 lei in the next 12 months, show the data published on Monday by CFA Romania.

On Friday the National Bank of Romania (BNR) announced a reference exchange rate of 4.7216 lei/euro.

The macroeconomic trust indicator takes values between 0 ( lack of trust) and 100 (total trust in the Romanian economy) was launched by CFA Romania and represents an indicator through which the association wants to quantify the anticipations of the financial analysts with regard to the economic activity in Romania for a year.

In July, the macroeconomic trust indicator of CFA Romania dropped against the previous month with 2.7 points, down to 48.2 points. Against the same month of the previous year, the indicator went up by 3.1 points.

As regards the exchange rate, 75% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the 12 months ( as compared to the present value).

Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the horizon of 6 months is 4.7857 lei/euro while for the horizon of 12 months the average value of the exchange rate is 4.8358 lei/euro.

Almost 60% of the participants in the survey anticipate an increase in the rate of inflation, and the anticipated rate of inflation for the next 12 months ( August 2020/August 2019)recorded an average value of 3.91% (at the moment of the survey, the inflation rate was at the value of 3.84%).

The survey is made during the last week of each month, and the participants are members of CFA Romania and the candidates for the level II and III of the CFA exam.