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The CFA Romania analysts estimate a depreciation of the national currency for the next 12 months, up to 4.9400 lei/euro

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The macroeconmic trust indicator of the association CFA Romania dropped in February against the previous month by 15.1 points to the value of 48.6 points. While for the same month of last year, the indicator grew by 14.1 points, and this evolution was due to the anticipation part of the indicator.

;Thus the indicator of current conditions dropped against the previous month by 2.4 points down to the value of 70.7 points ( against the same month of last year, the indicator of current conditions grew by 23.2 points). The indicator of anticipations dropped by 21q.5 points down to the value of 37.5 points (against the same month of the previous year, the indicator of anticipations grew by 9.6 points) show CFA in a press release.

Similarly, the CFA Romania analysts anticipate a depreciation of the leu for the next 12 months, up to 4,9400 lei/euro, while the anticipated rate of inflation for the horizon of 12 months,March 2021 /March 2020 recorded an average value of 3.67%.

‘As regards the exchange rate EUR.RON 85% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months ( as compared to the present value). Thus, the average value of anticipations for the horizon of 6 months is 4.8626 while for the horizon of 12 months the average value of the exchange rate is 4.9400. The anticipated rate of inflation for the horizon of 12 months (March 2021/.March 2020) registered an average value of 3.67%;’ a press release of CFA Romania says.

The macroeconomic trust indicator was launched by the association CFA Romania in May 2011 and represents an indicator through which the organization wants to quantify the anticipations of the financial analysts with regards to the economic activity in Romana for an horizon of one year. Similarly, the survey on the basis of which the indicator is based includes questions referring to the evaluation of the current macroeconomic conditions.

‘The way this survey is made, it covers both specific elements of a feeling(trust) indicator which shows the perception of the group of analysts, members of the association  CFA Romania regarding the evolution of the financial markets, of the business environment, of the yields and risks, as well as an indicator for prognosis regarding the evolution of the exchange rate, interests, and inflation. The survey is made over the last week of every month and the participants are members of the Association CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CF exam; the press release says.

The macroeconomic trust indicator takes values between 0 (lack of trust) and 100 (full trust in the Romanian economy) and it is calculated on the basis of 6 questions with regard to the current conditions referring to the business environment and the work market and the anticipations for the horizon of one year for the business environment, the work market, the evolution of the personal income at the level of the economy and the evolution of the personal wealth at the level of the economy.

Besides the questions necessary for the calculation of the macroeconomic trust indicator, the survey evaluates the anticipations for one year, for the inflation rate, for the interest rates, the exchange rate, the BET banking indicator, the global macroeconomic conditions and the oil price.

The CFA Association is the organization of the professionals in investments in Romania, mainly having the title of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), qualifiecation administered by CFA Institute (US).

At present, the C FA Romania association has over 245 members, the majority with the title of Chartered Financial analyst (CFA).

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