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The IMAS survey which shows that Mihai Tudose is more popular than Liviu Dragnea


Although he raised pensions and salaries in 2017 the Social  Democrat Party (PSD) is dropping in the voting intention of the  Romanians. ‘ The blame’ is with Liviu Dragnea and Florin Iordache the sociologist Alin Teodorescu, manager of IMAS 9 a close connection of the government party says when identifying two’ shocks’ which pulled PSD down in 2017 – the ordnance 13 and the censure motion against their own government.

If on Sunday there were elections, PSD would get 38.8% (against 49% in January) of the options expressed, followed by the liberal party - PNL which would  have a vote of 30.9% (against 23% in January) from the people who expressed their intention to take part in the following parliamentary elections, the IMAS survey shows when presented on Tuesday night at ‘ In front of you’ on Digi 24.

Thus, PSD lost 10 percentage points from the vote in only ten months.

The voting intention in January 2017

PSD - 49%

PNL - 20,7%

ALDE - 6,8%

USR - 8,3%

The voting intention in September 2017

PSD - 38,8%

PNL - 30,9%

ALDE - 8,1%

USR - 6,8%

'Mr.Iordache who promoted OUG 13 has on his conscience a million voters lost and the change of premier Grindeanu who led to the loss of about 500,000 voters. So, Mr.Dragnea and Mr.Iordache 1.5 million voters on their conscience, this year. There might be more next year’ Alin Teodorescu said.

On the other hand, PNL benefits from the PSD erosion.

‚PNL did not act like an opposition party. By doing nothing they still benefit from the minimum erosion of PSD  and they slowly grow’ the sociologue said. ‚ If they don’t do anything, they will not surpass PSD. They will be about 30 percent and at the elections they will go down again to the place they have’ Alin Teodorescu said.

As for the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats - ALDE the sociologist says that they benefit from those who leave PSD. ‘ It is a kind of refuge for the PSD voters who are disappointed. The PSD disappointed voters go to PNL- 60% and to ALDE – 40%, except for those who do not vote anymore’ he said.

‚The Save Romanian Union - USR does not do anything, so they go down’ Alin Teodorescu said curtly about the party which entered as the third force in the Parliament.

‚The Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania  - UDMR is in the ethnic pool that we know, so 5%. The People's Movement Party - PMP is 2-3% but they have Basescu who is seasoned political animal, with experience and in the elections of 2019 they will pull some strings and they get 5%’ the sociologist said.

As a conclusion, about PSD and PNL the sociologue said that ‚ as they started the battle with the justice, with the public spirit of Romania, with the state institutions, the social-democrats can be surpassed by the liberals, not much, but they can be surpassed by the PNL in two years’ time’.

The IMAS survey shows a drop in the image of Liviu Dragnea  who crashed from 31.5% to 18.7%. Alin Teodorescu says’ Dragnea at 18% - it means that Dragnea is not appreciated not  even by the PSD members. 20%  of the PSD voters do not appreciate Dragnea. (which for Mr.Dragnea) is a tragedy’.

Under such conditions, it is hard for the present chairman of PSD to make plans for Cotroceni, appreciates Alin Teodorescu. Especially as, according to the IMAS data, Klaus Iohannis grew this year as trust from 32 to almost 42 percentage points.

The IMAS survey was made on the phone, in September and has a sample of 1,000 interviewees with a margin of error of plus-minus3%.

The IMAS survey contradicts the sociological research presented some days ago by Marius Pieleanu who announced the ‘ drop’ of the trust in the government and which was the pretext for the political crisis between premier Tudose and PSD chairman Liviu Dragnea.



Friday, October 13, 2017