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XTB analysis: winter will be painfully expensive, +50 -60% against last year

An increase of 25% for electricity and 25-30% for gas against September 2021 would lead to values to +50 – 60% against last year, states Claudiu Cazacu, consulting strategist with XTB, brokerage house listed with Warsaw Stock Exchange.


In Europe, the quotations of the gas and electricity have registered record values, day in day out. Similarly, such an acceleration of the prices is unprecedented in history.

The environment does not look at all like the previous one, and things change in a rapid rhythm. Every day the balance of the market may change, he says.


 ‘What is in store for the consumers of Romania? As there is no capping of prices, very painful growth of the cost of utilities, not good news in the conditions where inflation, announced as 6.29% surpasses the official estimates at the beginning of the year and could continue. Spain and other states together with Romania require a joint approach at European level as regards the purchase of natural gas and a mechanism of compensation – in the present situation capping interventions would be accepted by the European authorities only through waiver. Subscriptions and compensations already accepted (0.21 lei/kWh for energy and 25% of a key price of125 lei/MWh for natural gas) have an estimated impact of 1.3 billion lei, and can cover only partly the increase of the bills for this winter, if the basic prices for electricity and gas do not come back close to the levels of last year’ he adds.


A medium scenario which takes into consideration a moderate slowdown following the surpassing of the present disparities, balancing of the offer/request ( a severe way of doing it would be through the reduction of consumption, of industrial activity or rationing) and increased offer from the producing states would induce bills higher by two figures during the winter months.


The inflation data show, in September, growth of 24.65% for electricity and 20.55% for gas.