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Cazacu (XTB Romania): There is the possibility to see the exchange rate at 4.40 lei/euro in two weeks



The national currency will be traded between 4.42 and 4.44 lei/euro in the period to come, but there is the chance to see the rate at 4.40 lei/euro, stated on Friday for Agergpres Claudiu Cazacu, head analyst of XTB Romania. ‘From my point of view, the rate was in an area of force of the leu and here the surprise does not seem to be big. The strengthening was of modest dimensions. For a while, we will probably have a reate between 4.42 and 4.44 lei/euro and there is the chance to see it towards 4.40 lei/euro’, explained Claudiu Cazacu the impact of improving the rating for Romania by the Agency for financial evaluation Standard&Poor’s.


He stated that there is the chance that the macro data in Romania start to go towards good, GDP reflects a rising consumption, the industry goes well enough,and the agriculture keeps approximately at the level of last year. There is also a low inflation, ‘ a bit of action’ for loans and the global feeling against Romania, which started to be better. Last but not least, the investors are looking for good yield.

Over the next two weeks it would not be impossible to see a rate of 4.40 lei/euro. My sensation is that this exchange rate is not completely in line with its basis and the risks. Probably, in a horizon of 4-5 years, until we integrate in the European monetary area, the exchange rate could be better, but until then there is no need for stimulation on this part and I think an exchange rate under 4.40 lei/euro is a bit overappreciated’ Claudiu Cazacu said.


The head analyst of XTB Romania considers that it is not excluded that in one month or two the exchange rate comes to 4.45 lei and even 4.5 lei. ‘The model we have in mind will record higher volatility on the markets and the favourable feeling for risk, which is strong enough now, would take some steps backwards. After the positive effect disappears, that of the cut of interest rate in the euro zone, as the Federal Reserve goes to the normalisation of the monetary policy, then I expect towards the end of the summer to see things in a more volatile way and with higher aversion to risk, which would affect the leu’ Claudiu Cazacu said.


The national currency appreciated on Friday against the euro, up to a rate of 4.4275 lei/euro, dropping by 0.74 bani (0.17%)against the quotation of Thursday, of 4.4349 lei/euro, according to the data announced by the National Bank of Romania.It is the best rate for the leu against euro from 2 September 2013 ( eight months and a half) when the rate announced by BNR was 4.422 lei/euro.

The Agency for financial evaluation Standard&Poor’s improved on Friday the rate attributed to Romania, at ‘BBBminus’ from ‘BB plus’, as the economic growth and the keeping of fiscal discipline on the part of the government.


BBBminus’ is the first rating in the category of investment grade, recommended for investments.

Following the decision on Friday, the country rating for Romania is similar to that attributed to Russia, Brasil and Spain.