Erste sees inflation in Romania at 4.3% at end-2024

 Austrian banking group Erste said that Romania’s inflation is expected to reach 4.3% by the end of 2023, in line with its previous forecast.

Romania's consumer prices rose by 7.4% in January, accelerating from a 6.61% increase in December and marginally surpassing Erste's estimate of 7.34%, the banking group said in an updated research report on Wednesday.

The forecast error regarding the inflation rate in January was due to costlier water and sewerage services. However, core inflation declined by 0.2 percentage points (pp) to 8.2% year-on-yearin January, in line with Erste's forecast.

The share of food products in the January consumer basket rose by nearly 0.7 pp, while non-food items and services saw their shares diminish by approximately 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. Fuel and non-oil energy items represented 18.2% of the consumer basket, up from 16.3% previously.

On Wednesday, Romania's central bank decided to keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at 7%, as anticipated by Erste in January. Erste said they stick to its call for the first rate cut in May, and expect the key rate to ease to 5.75% by the end of the year.

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