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AHK Business Outlook: a coming back of the conjuncture not before 2022
The pandemics caused by the Corona places much pressure on the companies. This is clear from the survey made by AHK Romania in October 2020. The questionnaire aims at the evaluation of the conjectural situation and the situation of the companies, but it also offers an overview of the main factors for economic risk from the perspective of the companies, in general, but it also points to the present crisis.’The general situation of the companies has got worse, but the majority of German companies in Romania see opportunities in the present crisis and accept the challenge.The Corona crisis has more of the role of catalyst for these structural changes existing in all economic sectors. The rhythm and pressure for change are clearly growing’ Sebastian Metz, general manager of AHK Romania.
The present situation of the German companies in Romania is appreciated by the majority of the interviewees as being ‘satisfactory’. The survey shows that only 35% of the German companies appreciate the situation of their own company as being good, fewer than the previous autumn (2019:60%).Over 55% of the interviewees consider it satisfying, and the rest of 9.6% appreciate the present situation as being difficult (2019:8.3%).
As regards the evolution of the activity, the companies are less trusting this autumn, which is easy to understand due to the unsafety created by the pandemics.Only a quarter (26%) of the companies interviewed consider that their activity will develop better over the next twelve months (2019:35%), while 25% consider that the evolution of their activity in Romania will be more reduced (2019:13.3%).
When referring to the situation of the conjuncture over the next 12 months, 40% of the interviewed ones expect a negative evolution (2019: 30.5%), almost a quarter are optimistic and believe in a conjectural coming back on an medium term,31% do not expect any change (2019: 57.6%). When asked, when they estimate the Romanian economy has a recovery, over 58% of the interviewees expect a recovery in 2022 or even later. ‘ The way to economic recovery is rocky and paved with many uncertainties. The support governmental aid programmes should consider this aspect, for example, to extend the new programmed for flexible work, Kurzarbeit’ Sebastian Metz says.
The number of employees stays at the same level, according to 60.6% of the interviewees. Significantly fewer companies than in the previous year say that they will continue recruitment (2020:17%; 2019:33%). As regards the investment intentions over the next twelve months, 40.4% of the companies say they will not change ( autumn 2019:40%) only 11.7% consider higher expenses for investments ( 2019: 22%). The balance ( the difference between positive and negative answers) goes down from five to minus 21 points to an absolute minimum
As regards the economic risk factors from the point of view of the companies, this year the share has changed. The main risk at present is the low demand for products and services, followed by framework political – economic conditions. In the previous year, most risk factors were the lack of workforce and costs with workforce.
Due to the pandemics caused by Corona, the travel restrictions and lack of investments influence mostly the activity of the companies. The most used measures which the companies take to face the present situation are digitisation, reduction of costs and postponement or annulment of investments.For the German companies in Romania, Germany and the EU are the regions of interest to look for suppliers as well as for establishing some investment placements.
AHK Romania took part for the sixth time in a row to the survey ‘ AHK World Business Outlook’, coordinated by the Union of Chambersof Commerce and Industry of Germany (DIHK).
The companies in the world have asked about the investment plans and the workforce employability and about the most important risk factors in business in each country. This year, the questionnaire included questions about the situation and the economic development in the context of Corona pandemics. From Romania there were 94 companies, most than half being active in industry and constructions (52.7%), over 30% in services, and the rest of the companies in the domain of commerce.
The survey was made between 1 -19 October 2020.