RSS
BNR expects slowing down of economic activity in most economy sectors in quarters 3 and 4
BNR expects a slowing down of economic activity in most economic sectors, except for agriculture, in quarters 3 and 4, according to the November Report on inflation.
According to the source, economic activity especially in HoReCa and cultural-recreational activities, is evaluated as having benefited, in the first two months of quarter 3, from the relaxation of an important number of mobility restrictions, on the background of the improvement of the medical situation. Also in this context, there is a high level of the economic agents' confidence in July and August.
ESI indicator calculated by DG ECFIN recorded some of the highest values since the beginning of pandemic. In exchange, unfavorable signals came from the dynamic of industrial production and the building sector, on the background of the persistence of differences in supply chains (in the context of microchip crisis and the global raw material price increase) evaluated with a more persistent character than initially anticipated.
Moreover, exports are foreseen to benefit from the activity recovery of the main commercial partners in the euro zone, on the background of a better control of the health situation in those states.
The institution foresees that the new trajectory includes: slowdown effects, higher than previous estimates, of economic activity in the last two quarters of the current year and the contraction impact, anticipated to persist for some time, because of energy prices.
The average annual GDP increase is imprinted by that of people's household consumption, to which is added the solid contribution of the formation of fix capital. The contribution of real net exports is designed to remain negative, with higher values in 2021 (against the previous year). For the current year, the designed contribution of the variation of stocks in the average GDP dynamic is very high.