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BNR: Household consumption, main determinant of GDP growth in 2024, 2025
Household consumption is expected to become this year and remain in 2025 the main determinant factor of GDP growth, given the significant acceleration of the growth of real disposable income, but also in the context of real interest rates on household loans and deposits, according to the Minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania of August 20, 2024.
"It was noted that, similar to previous forecasts, household consumption is expected to return this year and remain in 2025 the main determinant of GDP growth, given the significant acceleration of real disposable income growth - under the influence of wage increases and social transfers superimposed on the relatively lower downward trajectory of the inflation rate - but also in the context of real interest rates on loans and population's deposits," reads the BNR minute.
A significant contribution to GDP growth is likely to continue to come from gross fixed capital formation, whose growth is expected to slow down considerably in 2024-2025, after the strong acceleration in 2023, but to remain alert from a historical perspective, amid the attraction and use of a significant volume of European funds, but decreasing compared to 2023 and in the context of significant uncertainties associated with budget programmes and executions, as well as geopolitical tensions and economic developments in Europe, the members of the Board noted.
At the same time, following the evaluation of the relevant indicators, it was concluded that, in the second quarter, private consumption remained the main determinant of economic growth, and a large contribution is possible from the gross fixed capital formation, mainly on account of the construction activity.