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BNR’s Radulescu: Starting with Q2 2021, there will be economic growth, estimated rather vigorous
Romania will have a ‘rather vigorous’ economic growth starting with Q2 next year, even if Q1 is not better than the present one, stated on Wednesday Eugen Radulescu, the head of the Department for Stability in the National Bank of Romania (BNR).
He mentioned that it is necessary for the companies to adapt to the global situation after the current crisis of Covid-19, but, for this, ‘we are talking about a financial situation which is adequate as regards liquidity and indebtedness level’.
‘ The first six months for which we have the data on the 85 subsectors which we analysed, there is a drop in the turnover by 4.4% against the same period of last year. We have 51 sectors where the dynamics were negative, while for 34 domains the dynamics were positive. There are two sectors of activity with reduction of 60%: tourism and tour operators, as well as air transport, while other 13 sectors had drops of at least 20%’ Eugen Radulescu said.
The representative of the National Bank said that ‘we started from a rather critical moment as regards the budget’. He mentioned that Romania has the long term interest higher than the other countries in the region due to the two twin deficits at the highest level in the region.
‘It is good that we have managed to keep the country rating in the investment grade area, despite the deterioration of the financial indicators during this year, but next year, we need to be very cautious not to push the economy towards a stronger recession. We need to follow the balance redressed way. The country rating and the deficits we have do not affect the state cost only. They affect the debtors, both natural persons and enterprises’ Radulescu said.
The BNR official mentioned that the Central Bank dropped the interest rates in the monetary policy in three different stages.
According to him, in eleven months of this year there is a depreciation of 1.9% of the leu, as there was inflation higher than in the euro zone. According to him, ‘things will continue in the same direction’ especially if ‘we manage to stabilize the budgetary deficit and we manage to reach the first measures to its gradual reduction over the next years’.