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CFA Romania analysts forecast worse economic prospects
CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Monday that the state of the country's economy is expected to worsen in the next 12 months, seenews.com informs.
CFA analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months fell by 7.2 points to 33.8 points in May, CFA said in a monthly survey.
The macroeconomic confidence indicator fell by 8 points month-on-month to 41.5 points in May, influenced by the negative perception of the current economic situation - an indicator which fell by 9.5 points on the month to 56.9 points in April.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 4.58% in the year ending in May 2019, up 0.03 percentage points compared to their expectations in April.
Romania's annual consumer price inflation quickened to 5.4% in May from 5.2% in April, continuing a five-year high run, latest data from the national statistical office, INS, showed.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.7046 lei ($1.17/ 1.07 euro) per euro in the next six months and of 4.7603 lei per euro in 2018.
On Thursday, the Romanian leu weakened to an all-time low against the euro on Thursday following massive protests on Wednesday sparked by amendments to the Criminal Code passed by parliament. The central bank, BNR, set its reference exchange rate at 4.6695 lei per euro on Thursday, 0.08% weaker than 4.6660 lei per euro on the previous day.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, represents an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.