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CFA Romania estimates that the economic impact of coronavirus will be felt until quarter 2, 2022
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania Association remained constant compared to the previous month at the level of 55.7 points and analysts estimate that the economic impact of coronavirus will be felt until quarter 2, 2022.
“The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania remained constant compared to the previous month at the level of 55.7 points (the indicator grew by 7.2 points against the same month of the previous year). The evolution of the two components was divergent. Thus, the indicator of current conditions grew by 3.5 points against the previous month at the value of 38.3, while the anticipation indicator dropped by 1.7 points, at 64.4”, the association shows.
The anticipated inflation rate for 12 months (March 2022/March 2021) recorded an average value of 3.29%. As for the euro/leu exchange rate, over 87% of participants to the survey anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the present value). Thus, the average value of anticipations for 6 months is 4.9182, while for 12 months the average value of the anticipated rate is 4.9708 lei for one euro.
69% of participants in the survey anticipate the increase of the inflation rate.
“The duration of the economic impact of coronavirus: most respondents (over 56%) anticipate it will be felt until quarter 2, 2022. The state budget deficit anticipated for 2021: the average value of anticipations is 7.4%. The GDP evolution in real terms in 2021: the average value of anticipation is +4.1%, estimated by analysts who foresee that the public debt as GDP percentage will reach over 52% in 12 months.
The respondents' anticipations are the adoption of euro by Roamnia in about 8 years.
The survey has been made monthly by CFA Romania Association for ten years, and represent an indicator with which the organization wants to measure the anticipations of financial analysts about economic activity in Romania for one year.
CFA Romania Association is the organization of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the title of Chartered Financial Analyst, a qualification administered by CFA Institute (USA). At present, CFA Romania Association has over 230 members, holders of the title of Chartered Financial Analyst.