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CFA: Romania macroeconomic confidence index in December at its lowest value since April 2013
The CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) Romania indicator of macroeconomic declined in December compared to the previous months, to the value of 41 points, the lowest value since April 2013, dropping by 3.1 points from the values recorded in the previous reporting period, according to a release of the CFA Romania.
This development was especially based on the indicator's forecasting component. Thus, the current conditions indicator marginally dropped by 0.7 points, up to the value of 59 points (the lowest value since April 2015), while the expectations indicator declined by 4.2 points up to the value of 32 points (the lowest since October 2012).
The development of the expectation indicator is mainly due to answers to the question about personal income developments expectations (41 percent of the respondents anticipate a decline of the personal income on the economy level compared to 20 percent in the previous reporting period).
In respect to the exchange rate of Romania's national currency - Leu/Euro, 92 percent of the participants expect a depreciation of the leu currency over the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Therefore, the median value of expectations in six months reached an expected exchange rate of 4.6998 (increasing by 107 price interest points - pips compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period), while the 12-month horizon recorded an expected exchange rate of 4.7428 (a value also increasing by 99 pips compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period).
The expected inflation rate on the 12-month horizon (January 2018/ January 2019) recorded a median value of 3.75 percent (higher by 0.37 percentage points compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period). Moreover, over 97 percent of the participants expect an increase of the inflation rate in the next 12 months.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 by CFA Romania as an index that quantifies the expectations of financial analysts from Romania's economy over one year.
The CFA Romania is the professional association within Romania's investment industry.