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CFA: Romania macroeconomic confidence index up by 2 points in February

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The CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) Romania indicator of macroeconomic increased in February compared to the previous months, to the value of 56.9 points (plus 2 points).

According to a release sent on Friday, the growth was mainly due to the correction of the current conditions indicator.

"Therefore, the current conditions indicator was 67.9 percent, increasing by 4.3 points, while the expectations indicator rose marginally by 0.8 points, up to the value of 51.3 points," the release mentions.

In respect to the exchange rate of Romania's national currency—Leu/Euro, 67 percent of the participants are expecting a depreciation of the leu currency in the next 12 months. Therefore, the median value of expectations in six months reached an expected exchange rate of 4.5500 (increasing by 500 price interest points — pips compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period), while the 12-month horizon recorded an expected exchange rate of 4.5600 (a value also increasing by 500 pips compared to the one recorded in the previous reporting period).

The expected inflation rate on the 12-month horizon (March 2018/ March 2017) recorded a median value of 1.5 percent (a similar value with the one recorded in the previous reporting period).

The expectations regarding the growth of interest rates in leu currency, both for the short-term (3 months) and medium-term (5 years) deadlines are noteworthy, 93 percent of the participants in the survey expected this evolution.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 by CFA Romania as an index that quantifies the expectations of financial analysts from Romania's economy over one year.

The survey is carried out in the last week of each month and the participants are members of the CFA Romania and candidates for the CFA exams levels II and III.

The index takes values between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions about current conditions — regarding the business environment, labour market, and expectations over one year horizon for the following areas: business environment, labour market, the evolution of personal revenue and of personal wealth on economy level.

Besides the questions needed for calculating the macroeconomic indicator, the survey also assesses expectations, for one-year-horizon, for inflation rate, interest rates, the Leu against the Euro exchange rate, the stock exchange index BET, the global macroeconomic conditions and the oil price. 

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