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CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator up 5.6 points in October 2023

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association went up in October by 5.6 points to 53.0 points.

According to a CFA Romania press statement released on Friday, what happened is both components of the indicator advanced.

"Anticipations of economic growth resumption in 2024 amidst increases in public spending probably led to increased confidence in the economy. Also, the disinflationary process will continue, but at a much slower pace, with inflation being projected to remain above 6% at the end of 2024, and tax policy remaining the main risk to the disinflationary process," according to Adrian Codirlasu, vice-president of the CFA Romania Association.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2024) was lowered to an average value of 6.28%.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 76% of the participants are expecting a depreciation of the leu (RON) in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0097 lei to the euro, while for the 12-month horizon, is RON 5.0541 to the euro.

Regarding the developments in property prices in cities, 47% of the participants anticipate a decrease in them, while another 47% of the participants anticipate stability in the next 12 months. Also, 58% of the participants consider that the current prices are too high and 29% that they are the right ones.

The average value of the expectations for the government deficit this year is 5.6%. For the year 2023, the anticipated value of real GDP growth recorded the value of 2.0%.

Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 53% in the next 12 months.

 

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