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CFA Romania: macroeconomic trust indicator increased in November against the previous month
The Macroeconomic Trust Indicator of the Association CFA Romania on November has increased against the previous month by 12.5 points up to the value of 44.5 points, and against the same month of the previous year, the indicator dropped by 12.4 points.
Thus, the indicator for current conditions has increased against the previous month by 14.2 points, up to the value of 34.1 points (against the same month of the previous year, the indicator of current conditions dropped by 34.7 points). The indicator of anticipations has increased by 11.6 points against the previous month, up to the value of 49.8 points (against the same month of the previous year, the indicator of anticipations dropped by 1.2 points).
As regards the exchange rate euro/leu, 91% of the participants to the survey anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months (as compared to the present value). Thus, the average value of anticipations for the horizon of six months is 4.9253 while for the horizon of 12 months the average value of the exchange rate is 4.9906 lei for one euro.
The anticipated rate of inflation for the horizon of 12 months (December 2021/December 2020) registered an average value of 2.41%.
Starting with April this year, in the survey there were added some supplementary questions, referring to the impact of the crisis of the corona virus on the national economy, and the results for November 2020 show, about the duration of the economic impact of corona-virus, that the biggest part of the interviewees (approximately 58%) anticipate that his will be felt until Q3 of 2021.
As regards the deficit of the state budget anticipated for 2020, the average value of anticipations is 9% and the evolution, in real terms of GDP of 2020, the average value of anticipations is -4.4%.
The average value of anticipations regarding the unemployment rate at the end of 2020 is 6.5%. For 2021, the anticipations of evolution in real terms of the GDP are +3.3%.
The Macroeconomic Trust Indicator was launched by the Association CFA Romania in May 2011 and represents an indicator through which the organisation wants to quantify the anticipations of the financial analysts with regards to the economic activity in Romania for a horizon of a year. Similarly, the survey on whose basis the Indicator is calculated includes questions referring to the evaluation of the macroeconomic current conditions.
The survey was made over the last week of each month and the participants are members of the Association CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA examination. The title CFA/R is one of the most prestigious in the world among professionals in the financial domain. Today, in the world there are 170,000 owners of the title, the majority being affiliated to the 159 organisations members of the CFA Institute.