CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator went down in October

CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator went down in October from the previous month, for the fifth consecutive month, to 43.4 points, the lowest since April 2013, according to a CFA Romania press release. 

The decline was caused by the both components of the indicator. Thus, the indicator of current conditions was 59.1 points, a decrease of 4.8 points, while the indicator of anticipations decreased by 0.6 points, to 35.5 points (the lowest value since October 2012). 

Regarding the EUR / RON exchange rate, 89% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON over the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 4,6421, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected exchange rate is 4,6817. 

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2018 / November 2017) recorded an average of 2.75% (0.39 percentage point higher than in the previous exercise). 

"It is worth noting the expectations on the increase in the RON interest rates for both short-term (3 months) and medium-term ones (5 years), 98% and 93% respectively of the participants in the survey anticipating this trend. Thus, the average ROBOR with the maturity of 3 months forecast for 12 months is 2.63% (0.69 percentage point higher than in the previous exercise)," the release read. 

CFA Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011 as an indicator quantifying financial analysts' anticipations about economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. 
CFA Romania is the association of Investment professionals in Romania.

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