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CFA Survey: macroeconomic confidence indicator fell in September to the lowest value in the last four years
The macroeconomic confidence indicator fell in September to the lowest value in the last four years, 45.4 points, according to CFA Romania.
"In September 2017, CFA Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator decreased to 45.4 points (the lowest value since June 2013) compared to the previous month, by 5.3 points lower than the value recorded in the previous exercise," reads a CFA Romania press release .
According to the association of investment professionals, the decrease was generated by both components of the indicator. Thus, the indicator of current conditions was 63.9 points, down by 4.6 points, while the indicator of anticipations decreased by 5.7 points to 36.1 points (the lowest value since October 2012).
As to the EUR / RON exchange rate, 79pct of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON over the next 12 months. Thus, the average anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 4,6300 (up 123 pips compared to the previous exercise), while for the 12-month horizon the average expected rate is 4,6696 (a value rising by 173 pips).
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (October 2017 / October 2018) recorded an average value of 2.36pct (lower by 0.19 percentage points over the previous exercise).
"It is worth mentioning the anticipations of increased interest rates for RON for both short-term maturities (3 months) as well as for medium-term ones (5 years), 97pct and 100pct respectively of the survey participants anticipating this trend. Thus, the average ROBOR rate with 3-month maturity anticipated in 12 months is 1.94pct, and the yield on sovereign bonds denominated in RON with a maturity of 5 years is 3.27pct," the quoted source informs.
CFA Society Romania promotes ethical and professional standards within the investment industry, encourages professional development through the CFA Program, and facilitates the open exchange of information and opinions.
CFA Society Romania is one of the most important local professional organizations bringing together investment professionals from banking, asset management, insurance, private equity, pension funds and other different fields of the investment industry. CFA Society Romania was established in 2000 as a professional, non-governmental organization and is one of the investment societies that are part of CFA Institute.