RSS
CNP: The 2018 budget will be built on a GDP of 907.9 billion lei with economic growth of 5.5%
The National Commission for Prognosis (CNP)published the estimates for 2017 – 2021 – for the budget draft 2018 – which says that next year Romania will have a GDP of 907,9 billion lei and economic growth of 5.5%
Taking into consideration the general average of budgetary income of the last years, of 30% of GDP the calculations show that in 2018 there should be at least 272 billion lei. And if the budgetary deficit will be kept around 3% of GDP then the budgetary expenditure in 2018 could be at most 300 billion lei.
According to CNP, the final consumption will rise by 5.8% in 2018 and the consumption of the households with 6.2%. The gross capital ( indicator which shows economy investments) would advance with 7.9%.
Inflation would be 2.6% at the end of 2018 with annual average of 3.1% and the exchange rate would fluctuate at around 4.55 lei/euro, the CNP prognosis shows.
The average number of employees would rise by 4.2% against 2017 at 5.13 million people, and the average salary per economy will advance with 11% up to 2,614 lei net monthly. The real salary – the net gain adjusted with inflation – would rise by 7.7%.
The sectors with the highest growth in 2018 would be – according to the CNPprognosis – constructions (+7%), services – which include commerce and transports(+6.2%) and industry (+5.2%). Imports will grow with 7.9% and exports with only 6.5% which would lead to a drop in export with 1.4% - this being the only indicator which could stop the economic growth in 2018.
CNP estimates a potential GDP of 5.2% in 2018 ( against 4.6% in 2017) and a Gross Domestic Product of 196.1 billion euro in 2018 ( against 181 billion euro in 2017).
In conclusion, the official prognosis shows that the government will focus in 2018 on investments, constructions and services as well as on the growth of potential GDP rather than on consumption – which would mean a major change against the economic model applied over the last years.