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Coface Romania : Nobody forecasts recession for Romania this year
This year should be a year of truce, a resilient year in many sectors and in which no economic contraction is expected, Bogdan Nichisoiu, Coface Romania rating manager, told at a press conference on Wednesday.
"2024 should be a year of truce. A resilient year on very, very many sectors, very many vectors of economic traction. I look at what our whole profession, yes, and in a broad sense, what the IMF says, what the European Commission forecasts, yes, so this whole portfolio of predictions for 2024, the common denominator is that for Romania nobody is pointing to recession. So this range of economic growth is between 2.4 - 3.5%, obviously the option, the most optimistic prediction being that of the Government, but it is important to note that nobody is predicting a recession, a contraction of the economy. We practically join this thesis. Why? Because we believe in the resilience of private consumption in 2024. This is an election year. Statistically in the last 30 years, no election year has ever had a contraction in private consumption. We have a tight labor market. I don't think, it would be the surprise of the century for me to see an exacerbation of unemployment. The money will continue to stay in the pockets of employees. A real salary that stays in positive territory. Even if we have this kind of inflection point in January, we still see inflation in this range at the end of the year of 5.5 to 6 percentage points. We think that nominal wages will increase by about 7 - 8 percentage points, real wages we see in a positive zone. Again, this is an ingredient that should bring resilience to private consumption," said Bogdan Nichisoiu.
He said that without a major external shock he does not see a "frugal figure" in the consumption area in 2024, as it was in 2023, of 1.9%, but a higher one.
However, the impact of energy costs is more diluted and if things stay as they are in the Middle East they do not massively impact the liquefied natural gas ecosystem on which Europe depends.