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Dungaciu: War influences politics in Moldova; the European option dropped to 54%
The European option of the citizens in the Republic of Moldova is influenced by the war in Ukraine, the percentage of those who expressed in this way dropping to 54% from 62% as it was before the conflict, stated on Wednesday Dan Dungaciu, the chairman of the University Foundation of the Black Sea ‘ Mircea Malita’ during an event regarding the public launching of the opinion barometer ‘ The Republic of Moldova between Romania, Ukraine and Russia (Transniester)’.
He added that the war did not frighten the population of this country, pushing it towards the Euro-Atlantic structures, but, ‘the other way round’ it made it more reluctant.
" And that shows a type of volatility. 54%, while the brass bands are playing, all the Europeans are going to Chisinau, flags are flying, Brussels flags are everywhere. It's not necessarily a reassuring thing (...). There is a discrepancy between the real country and the royal country, and we have to feel this real country from time to time, because we might have surprises. And if we just look at the real country, someone might work on the real country in a way that we just blow up in our faces. Because that's what all this research is about, the real country, the real country where 64% of the population wants the patriarch of Romania to come there. No politician in the Republic of Moldova has a positive desire of 64%. It's a big percentage, it's more than any politician has at the moment," the speaker said.
Dungaciu said that geopolitics ‘matters’ and the identity matter is important in the Republic of Moldova as a strategic and political option.
"If we don't deal with the identity issue based on the assumption that it is a geopolitical identity, it means that we haven't understood anything of what is happening in Moldova. The identity issue is important in the Republic of Moldova as a strategic and political option. Without a different kind of identity assumption there, it will be very difficult to move those populations in one direction or another (...). Related to identity and the Metropolia of Bessarabia. The Metropolia of Bessarabia does not have 34% on the ground, if we count the parishes and the faithful, but it has 34% in the option. The Metropolia of Bessarabia is about the real country, not the royal country, the grassroots population. How do we get there, how do you manage this instrument when you have 34% potential and the patriarch is expected by 64%, of which about 6-7% are Russians? What do you do when the patriarch has a higher acceptability than any other politician? That's the fundamental question. This is a huge stake, the Metropolia of Bessarabia, and beyond the religious stake, it is a strategic stake," Dungaciu said.
In the context, Ion Jigau, from the Centre for Sociological Investigations and Marketing ‘ CBS-Research’, an institute for the public opinion research in Kishinev presented the data of the study under discussion according to which if next Sunday there is a referendum regarding the Republic of Moldova’s accession to the EU, 54% would vote’ in favour’ and 30% ‘ against’. For accession to NATO, 28.5% of the interviewees would vote in favour and against 55%.
In case of referendum regarding union of the Republic of Moldova to Romania, 37.8% would vote ‘in favour’ and 50% would vote’ against’ and as for the question if the Metropolis Bessarabia supports union with Romania, 51%would say yes, 49% would agree with the accession to the EU, 27.5% would agree to accession to NATO and 19.6% would be in favour of getting the Republic of Moldova closer to Russia.
Similarly, 64% of the interviewees answered affirmatively to the question if Patriarch Daniel of the Romanian Ortodox Church should visit the Republic of Moldova.
As for the number of Moldova citizens who work with right to work in the Russian Federation, he said that in June, last year, their number was 6,000, according to the data of the ministry of internal affairs of the Republic of Moldova, mentioning that their number could be three times more if you take into consideration the people who work there without documents.
According to other data he provided, the public institution in which Moldovans have the most confidence is the town hall, with a score of 7.4 on a scale of 1 to 10, followed by the presidential institution with 5 points, while Moldovans' confidence in Parliament and Government is below this score.
In terms of trust in public figures, Maia Sandu comes first, followed by Ion Ceban, who is ahead of Igor Dodon, Vladimir Voronin and Ilan Shor.
If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, about 71% of Moldovans would vote "for sure", the expert added.
Viaceslav Ionita, an expert from Moscow analysed the economic side of the poll.
"We have a large number of Moldovans who see their children's future abroad, but it is 10% lower than it has been five years in a row. We have quite a high propensity to migrate, 16% of citizens say they will leave the country in the near future, in the next six months. So people have made the decision to leave the country, they continue to leave. This has remained constant for the last seven years, which leads us to believe that migration in our country is somewhere around two percent of the population left in the country, so we have a strong migration of 35,000 to 40,000 people annually. Wages are no longer so pressing, but the reason for migration today is welfare and quality of life, not wages. And this also has a strong influence on political choices," concluded Ionita.
The survey was conducted by telephone from 7-12 February 2024 on 1,104 people and has an error of 3%.