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Erste has revised Romania’s economic growth estimate to 4.5 pct of GDP this year
Austrian Erste Group Bank, which controls BCR locally, has revised the economic growth forecast of Romania on an upward trend for 2016, after the data regarding the evolution from the first half of the year overpassed the expectations of analysts, business-review.eu reads.
„The real GDP from the second quarter overpassed all the expectations, registering a growth of 1.5 percent compared with the previous quarter and 6 percent compared with the similar period of the last year. Our estimations and the market consensus indicated an annual growth of 4.1 percent. Taking into account that the detailed data are not yet available, we believe that the main engines were a potential acceleration of the gross fixed capital formation after the weak evolution from the first quarter and the massive increase of the private consumption, ” says a report of Erste.
The Erste economists anticipated a slow down to 0.1-0.5 percent of the Romanian economy in the second quarter compared with the previous three months.
For 2017 Erste estimates an economic growth of 3.4 percent in Romania, a decrease compared with the previously forecasted growth of 3.6 percent.
„The potential measures regarding the maintenance of the budgetary deficit under control in 2017 and the external risks might put pressure on the increase, ” say the Erste economists.
The banking group anticipates a deficit of 2.9 percent from GDP in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017.
The Romanian economy grew in the second quarter of this year by 6 percent compared with the same period of 2015 according to National Institute of Statistics (INS).
In a separate analysis, Nomura bank upgraded its growth outlook for the local economy to 5 percent of GDP.