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Macroeconomic Confidence Index goes up in April
The majority of CFA Romania analysts anticipate a decrease of the leu currency, the average value of the anticipations for the six-month horizon being of 4.7859, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 4.8481.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased in April 2019 compared to the previous month by 11.6 points, up to the value of 46.6 points and compared to April 2018, it declined by 2.9 points, the CFA Society Romania informed, mentioning that this development is due to both components of the indicator.
Thus, the current conditions component of the Indicator increased compared to the previous month by 12.8 points, up to 59.9 points. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the current conditions component of the Indicator dropped by 6.1 points. The anticipation component of the Indicator went up 11.1 points up to 39.9 points (against the same month of 2018, the anticipation component of the Indicator dropped by 1.2 points).
"In respect to the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 86 percent of participants anticipate a depreciation of local currency within the next 12 months (compared to current rate). Thus, average exchange rate according to anticipations is EUR/RON 4.7859 for the 6 months horizon and 4.8481 for the 12 months horizon. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2020 / May 2019) recorded an average of 4.15 percent," according to a CFR Society Romania release.
According to the quoted source, also notable are the interest rate increases for medium-term maturities (5 years), over 70 percent of participants anticipating this trend, as well as Romania's risk premium increase expectations, over 81 percent of participants anticipating this trend.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was firstly released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011 and represents an indicator that aims at quantifying anticipations of the financial analysts on economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year. The survey which the indicator is calculated on also includes the indicator and questions regarding the assessment of current macroeconomic conditions.
The CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania, largely holding the title of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA). CFA Romania is one of the over 152 member companies of the CFA Institute. Currently, the CFA Romania has over 230 members, the majority of them holding the Chartered Financial Analyst title or candidates for one of the three levels of examination leading to the award of this title.