RSS
National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis revises downwards to 4pct estimates on 2019 economic growth
The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) has revised downwards the estimates for the 2019 economic growth, closer to the lower level of 4.0 pct, as compared to 5.5 pct as estimated in the spring forecast, taking into account the sectoral statistical data of the national accounts available for the first semester of the current year.
CNSP also lowered the forecast for 2020, to 4.1 pct, compared to 5.7pct, as recorded in the spring version.
"In the medium term, the economic growth will remain high compared to the EU average (1.4 pct), ensuring the continuation of the real convergence process to the European average. For the 2021-2023 period, the average annual rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is of about 4.2 pct in real terms," reads a press release of the institution regarding the 2019 autumn forecast.
According to the cited source, the potential of the Romanian economy remains slightly higher than the forecasted level of the actual GDP, a situation generated by the developments of the previous period.
"Romania's potential growth was 4.6 pct in 2018 and can be considered a reference rate, since the data used have a high degree of certainty (final or semi-final), the calculations being carried out by the European Commission using the common methodology agreed at the level of all Member States," the document says.
"After the deterioration of 2018 and 2019, as a result of the consumption demand stimulation and the export weakening, balancing the structure of the gross domestic product on the uses side will lead to a gradual adjustment of the current account deficit towards the medium term balance level. According to the European standards, the three-year average of the current account deficit should not exceed 4 pct of GDP," notes CNSP.