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Prognosis Commission significantly revises downwards, to 2.9 pct, growth estimate of Romanian economy in 2022
The National Strategy and Prognosis Commission (CNSP) revised downwards to 2.9% the growth estimate of the Romanian economy for this year, from 4.3% as previously forecast.
In the spring version of the Medium-Term Forecast, CNSP shows that the overlap of shocks (the geopolitical context, successive increases in energy prices and altered global supply chains) exacerbates risks and uncertainties on the economy, while affecting short-term business expectations. .
The estimates published by CNSP are in line with the forecasts of the international financial institutions, which have significantly decreased the growth targets of the Romanian economy this year. Thus, the IMF was recently estimating an advance of 2.2% for 2022, from 4.8% in the autumn, while the World Bank indicated an even more modest increase for Romania's GDP of 1.9%.
For the current account deficit, CSNP foresees the maintenance of the indicator at high values in the current year (-6.9% of GDP), against the background of a growing trade deficit, amplified by the price increases. Positive corrections are expected in the medium term.
The estimated level of price increase is slightly higher than the previous forecasts, respectively 9.7% compared to 9.5% for the end of the year, and 10.1% compared to 9.9% as an annual average.
"Recent government support measures for the vulnerable population, as well as measures to increase the minimum wage in agriculture and the food industry, will keep the dynamics of purchasing power at positive values (about + 0.7%), given a high average annual inflation (+ 10.1%)," the cited source states.
For 2022, the average gross earnings are estimated to increase by 9.7%, to a level of 6,120 RON, and the number of employees will record an advance of 1.6%. The BIM unemployment rate will continue to fall this year to 5.4%.
The draft budget for 2022 was set at an economic growth of 4.6%.