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PwC : the companies in Romania estimate that the economy will develop better in 2022 against the previous year
The perception of 59% of the general managers of the companies in Romania is that, in 2022, the national economy will have a better evolution than last year. While the estimates of the global leaders are that the global economy will advance by 4.5% this year, only if the impact of the Omicron variant is limited and the measures implemented ensure an adequate protection against serious illness, say the data of the PwC Global Economic Watch 2022 report, published on Friday.
Estimates warn that there will be stricter financial conditions, as the central banks in the advanced economies will increase the rates of monetary policy and will reduce the programmes of quantitative relaxation. The US and the UK started this process, but the effects of the Omicron variant could delay it by several months.
‘Pressure generated by the interruption of the supply chains will disappear, according to estimates, taking into consideration the fact that an improvement could be seen over the last months of last year, which will continue in 2022. This trend will reduce inflation, until the second part of this year, offering the central banks a respite to postpone the possible increases of the rates of monetary policy interest, especially if the economies face supplementary issues such as unexpected epidemiological changes’ the PwC report says.
According to the consultants, another estimate considers the inversion of the roles between the US and the EU, as regards the fiscal policy.
‘In the US for the first time since the beginning of the pandemics, the Centre for Research Hutchins expects that the fiscal policy pulls down the economic growth by approximately 2 percentage points in 2022. In the meantime, in the EU which is governed by a set of fiscal rules, it is possible that the fiscal policy adds between 0.5 and 1 percentage point to economic growth in 2022. This situation reflects the suspension of the fiscal rules of the EU, probably until 2023, moment when they will be revised to acknowledge the more active role of the fiscal authorities to get to zero carbon dioxide emissions until 2050. This year will probably be another record year for renewable energy, estimating that over 30% of the total production of electricity at global level will come from renewable sources. The price of raw materials is expected to be constant, but the geopolitical situation could change this estimate. The quick growth of the prices for energy and natural gas will be softened in the second part of the current year if there are no major geopolitical evolutions which influence the prices on short term, especially in Europe’ the document says.
At general level, the general managers consider that global economy will advance by 4.5% in 2022, if the impact of the Omicron variant is limited and the implemented measures ensure an adequate protection against severe illness.
PwC is a network of companies present in 156 countries, with more than 295,000 professionals who offer services in the domain of audit, fiscal consultancy and business consultancy.