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Radulescu (BT): The economic evolution of Romania in Q1 has been the weakest since 2015
The Romanian economy had in Q1 this year an increase of 4%, this being the weakest evolution since the Q3 of 2015 until now, stated on Wednesday Adrian Radulescu manager of macroeconomics analysis with Banca Transilvania (BT) in the conference ‘ The bank of the future’.
‘In the domestic economy,we have signals that the peak of the economic cycle has been surpassed, whatever we might do. We have seen the preliminary data,the first reading of the GDP for Q1this year, which shows a deceleration of the annual rhythm at 4%. It is the weakest evolution since Q3 2015 and very probably this deceleration was determined both by the diminution of the growth rhythm from the domain of the domestic demand and by the deterioration of the contribution of foreign demand, as the external position of the Romanian economy has continued to deteriorate in Q1 and, if we look at the deficit of current account, we will see an intensification of 25% in Q1, both towards the same period of last year, getting closer to one billion euro’ Radulescu said.
He mentioned that the impact of support policies of the domestic demand starts to wear off, which is seen in the evolution of the GDP. Moreover,the BTofficial referred to the slow dynamics of investments.
According to him, in the years to come, the economy of the country will grow under the real potential.
‘Over the next years we are expecting a deceleration of the economic growth at a level under 3% in 2020. Very probably, starting with next year the economy will evaluate at a rhythm under its potential, but we have signals that, by comparison to what happened towards the end of the previous cycle, we are in a stronger position, we can better face external and domestic shocks’ Radulescu said.
The National Institute for Statistics published on Tuesday preliminary data which show that the Romanian economy increased in Q1 of this year with 4% on the gross series and with 4.2% on the season adjusted series, as compared to the same period of 2017. The GDP in Q1 2018 was kept, in real terms, at the same level with the one registered in Q4 2017.