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UniCredit: the Romanian economy goes towards a cyclic economic end: the GDP could grow by 2.7% in 2020
The Romanian economy goes towards the cyclic economic end and the GDP could grow by 2.7% in 2020 or 2.3 – 2.5% in the case where the US apply the customs tariffs for importarted cars from Europe, stated on Wednesday in a press conference Dan Bucsa, head economist for Central and Eastern Europe with UniCredit Bank London.
‘The economic growth in the region will slow down, in connection with that in the euro zone, but it will be over 2% in the largest part of the countries, even if the American administration will impose tariffs on cars. We think of tariffs of 10% not 25% as the maximum. The Romanian economy goes towards the end of the economic cycle and there are things which go very well. It is clear that the private sector is not in a weak position as it was in 2008 – 2009, from all points of view, of income, of indebtedness, of the structure of debts. We don’t have the real estate issue which we had în 2008- 2009. At least the population is much less endebted in foreign exchange currency, which helps.
What is most important, at global level the interests is much lower, and even with us’ Dan Bucsa said. As regards the fiscal policy, Bucsa said that there are many measures which could be taken and with immediate impact. One of the measures could be the taxation of special pensions or of all pensions so that the growth of pensions programmed for next year be reduced. Another measure could be the operation of scanners at the borders of Romania. The third measure could be the collection of VAT. He stated that it is possible that the increase of pensions leads to the reduction of the country rating.