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Eurostat: Romania had biggest economic growth in EU in quarter 3, 2018
With a GDP increase of 1.9% in quarter 3, 2018, compared to the previous three months, Romania registered the most significant advance of the 28 EU member states, according to preliminary estimates published by the European Office for Statistics (Eurostat) on Wednesday.
According to Eurostat, EU GDP increase slowed down to 0.3% in quarter 3, 2016, after an advance of 0.5% in the previous 3 months, while the euro zone recorded an expansion of 0,2% after an advance of 0.4% in the previous 3 months.
The most significant expansion in EU over July-September 2018 was registered in Romania (1.9%), followed by Latvia (1.8%) and Poland (1.7%), while Italy reported zero increase and the only drops were in Lithuania (minus 0.4%) and Germany (minus 0.2%).
Eurostat points out that these prognoses do not include data from 8 member states: Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Croatia, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovenia and Sweden. Wednesday data can be reviewed on the occasion of new estimates to be released by Eurostat on December 7.
Annually, EU GDP recorded an advance of 1.9% in quarter 3, 2018, compared to the similar period of 2017, while euro zone GDP went up by 1.7%.
Data released by Eurostat are identical with those published previously by the National Statistics Institute (INS). According to it, GDP registered in quarter 3, 2018 had a quarterly advance of 1.9% and an annual increase of 4.1%.
The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) reviewed with as a drop estimates referring to economic growth this year, from 5.5% as foreseen in July. Estimates for 2019 were reviewed to 5.5% from 5.7%. For the next 3 years, figures referring to GDP advance remained unchanged to 5.7% in 2020 and 5% in 2021 and 2022.
In its turn, the European Commission significantly reviewed estimates referring to Romania’s economic growth in 2018, from 4.5% to 3.6%, while in 2019 it counts on an advance of 3.8% compared to 3.9% as estimated in spring, according to fall economic provisions published a week ago by community executive. For 2020, it indicates an advance of 3.6%.
IMF also reviewed as dropping its estimates about the evolution of Romanian economy, both this year and next year, as a result of moderating the stimulus that was at the basis of the robust increase recorded in 2017, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report, published by the international financial institution.
While in April IMF estimated that in 2018, Malta and Romania would register this year the highest economic growth in Europe of 5.7% and 5.1%, in the report published on October 9, IMF reviewed prognoses referring to the advance of Romanian economy to 4% in 2018, by 1.1% less than estimated in spring, foreseeing that in 2019 Romania will record an economic increase of 3.4% by 0.1% less than estimated in April.
“Romania’s economy recorded a robust increase of 6.9% in 2017 following fiscal stimuli and solid foreign demand. The increase will slow down to 4% in 2018 and will continue to drop to 3.4% in 2019,”the report published in October shows.
Analysts expect that the euro zone will record an annual increase of 2% in the next quarters, but it is less probable that the GDP advance may reach 2.5% this year.