CFA: Confidence indicator in evolution of Romanian economy went up in January

The macroeconomic confidence indicator of CFA Romania, calculated based on estimates of organization members, went up in January compared to the previous month, because of the anticipation growth of the indicator, according to data released by CFA Romania on Tuesday. At the same time, about 85% of participants anticipate an exchange rate of over 4,89 lei/euro in the next 12 months.

In January 2020, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania went up compared to the previous month by 2.2 points to 63.7 points (against the same period of 2019, the indicator went up by 39.9 points). This evolution was due to the anticipation component of the indicator.

At the same time, the indicator of current conditions dropped by 3.3 points, to 73.1 points (against the same period of 2019, the current condition indicator grew by 33.8 points). The anticipation indicator went up by 4.9 points to 59 points (against the same period of 2019 the anticipation indicator went up by 43 points).

As for the exchange rate, about 85% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the present value). Thus, the average value of anticipations for 6 months is 4.8345 lei/euros, while for the 12 months period the average value of the anticipated rate is 4.8931 lei/euros.

The anticipate inflation rate for 12 months (February 2021/February 2020) recorded an average value of 4.04%. Mention should be made of anticipations on interest rate increases both for short terms (ROBOR 3M) and for long ones (sovereign bonds due in 5 years and denominated in lei), over 61% and 64% of participants in the survey anticipating these evolutions.

The survey is made in the last week of every month and participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of CFA exam.

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