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CFA Romania analysts expect economy to improve slightly
CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said it expects the national economy to improve slightly in the next 12 months, seenews.com informs.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index for July decreased by 0.3 points relative to the previous month, reaching 59.7 points, CFA said in a monthly survey published on Saturday.
The drop was mainly due to a negative perception of the current economic situation, an indicator which fell by 1.2 points to 75 points.
However, the indicator that measures expectations towards the economy in the following 12 months slightly increased in July, by 0.2 points to 52 points.
Romania's economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2017 before expansion slows to 3.4% in 2018, according to the IMF's latest economic forecast issued in April. Romania's 2017 budget bill is built on projections of 5.2% economic growth and sets deficit equivalent to 2.99% of GDP. In 2016, Romania's economy expanded by 4.8% year-on-year compared to a revised growth rate of 3.9% in 2015.
CFA analysts said they were expecting, on average, inflation of 2.00% in the period August 2017- August 2018, the same as the rate projected in June.
Romania's annual consumer price inflation has quickened to 1.4% in July from 0.9% in June, reaching a three-year high, according to data from the national statistical office, INS.
In an inflation report issued earlier this month, Romania's central bank, BNR, said it has increased its annual inflation forecasts for this year and next, to 1.9% and 3.2%, respectively.
CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.6 lei ($1.18/ 1.00 euro) per euro in the next six months and in 2018, similar to the estimates made in June. Around 75% of the participants in the survey said they expect the leu to weaken during the next 12 months.
Some 63.6% of CFA analysts said they expect global economic conditions to be normal over the next 12 months, while only 6.9% expect an unfavourable situation and 29.5% are optimistic.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, represents an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations about economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The Index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labor market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.